With secrecy and maximum reserve, President Mauricio Macri is preparing to do, in November of this year, many of the things he should have done as soon as he took office, in December 2015.
Of course: it is prepared because it discovers that, after all, Cambiemos will win, and that it will be reelected, in spite of the very serious errors that its government committed. If indeed he triumphs, Macri will have transformed into a record man, worthy of being included in Guinness. Because it will prevail with high levels of rejection and discontent, a shattered economy, and its two big unfulfilled promises of its management: that of abruptly lowering poverty and at the same time inflation.
Those who maintain that Macri’s good fortune left him should review his analyzes. The head of state is lucky, for example, not to have been displaced from his position before his time, like Raúl Alfonsín or Fernando De la Rúa. She is lucky to have an electoral adversary like Cristina Fernández, who should be in jail and not thinking about the campaign, but at the same time she is the one who has the most votes within the opposition and works as a huge plug for Sergio’s aspirations. Massa, Juan Manuel Urtubey and Miguel Angel Pichetto.
He is lucky to lead the most effective electoral machinery in Latin America. And it is lucky, because among the notebooks of corruption and the evaluation of the currency, the opposition will cost and much more than the ruling party to finance the electoral campaign and influence public opinion.
But Cristina Fernández also deserves to be included in the next edition of the Guinness. Because there is no accurate case in the world of a political leader with so much evidence of illicit enrichment and having committed so many crimes of public corruption and at the same time maintaining support of around 30% of the electoral roll.
The other side of the disappointment that Macri creates due to the failure of the best government team in the world is the panic Cristina returns to finish transforming Argentina into Venezuela, and pursue her critics and adversaries but this time until the closing, with more viciousness and violence that never.
But the crack is not only fed by Macri and Cristina, analysts and journalists, but also by the diffuse image of the top referents of the middle avenue, who present themselves with the word Alternative but are not seen as leaders of the future. On the return of the President’s vacation, a minister who is not from the economic area dared to ask, in the middle of a meeting of colleagues, almost intimate, if there was no way to postpone the rate increases of March, April, May, including the last, of light and gas, which arrives
They would laugh until August, in the middle of the PASS.
They replied that they could only be postponed by breaking the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which would imply a currency exchange, and a new devaluation. They clarified that the previous rate increases were being eaten by the devaluation of April of last year. And that the only way for the economy not to fly through the air is to bet that the world will realize that this time it is serious. That there will be no default. And that the commitments will be honored, including that of achieving a zero primary fiscal deficit.
The minister understood then that under these premises it was impossible to ensure victory. “If we win, we win with the tongue out, at the last minute, with the face all bruised, without air, like Sylvester Stallone in Rocky I,” he said.
His memory is incorrect, because in Rocky I, Stallone lost on points with Apollo Creed, in split decision. But the image of arriving in October with the right thing, and with the battered face, is extremely graphic.
Above this minister, there are former officials and friends of the President who hold meetings with economists, CEOs of banks and large companies that they tempt with new projects for the eventual new mandate that President Macri is preparing to face. A government with substantive, structural reforms, such as a new pension, labor law, the elimination of distorting taxes and an appreciable decrease in tax pressure?
A representative of the political wing of Cambiemos, which insists on “opening the gate” to a part of Peronism or to different Peronist leaders, in a personal way, he asks. “If we did not have the power or the sufficient conviction to do it, we assumed, four years ago, why would we suddenly have them in November, even after winning the election?” This is a national deputy who calculates that, in the better of the cases, the composition of the camera of Senators and the one of Deputies will be a little more expedient to the oficialismo, but still it would follow in minority.
The deputy does not believe there is a new Macri after an eventual victory, and mistrusts the prognosis of Jaime Durán Barba, who argues that, as happened when he administered the City of Buenos Aires, the second parts of the leader of Cambiemos were always much better than the first ones
The President has already given free rein to two former officials with the rank of ministers who had to leave the government for different reasons to start probing owners and general managers of companies willing to get on a second shift of the government of Cambiemos.
Until now, they received ambiguous, or directly negative, responses. “It’s logical, the economy is still not growing and the chances of Mauricio winning are just a little higher than the chance of losing,” acknowledged the minister who used the Rocky I analogy.