The February inflation data released yesterday did not surprise private-sector economists who already predicted a similar figure . But if you started to rethink the cost of living estimates forward.
Without a clear guideline from the Government, the private consultants adjusted their expectations for 2019 and a 33% floor is already being considered , with some cases reaching 38%.
“We estimate that March will have an inflation of 3%, which would be 10% in the first quarter,” said Matías Carugati, chief economist at Management & Match. The consultancy expects inflation of 33% for the whole year , although Carugati makes the reservation that would be reached “assuming that there are no exchange problems.”
Federico Furiase of the consultancy EcoGo, said that they project “an accumulated inflation for the first quarter around 10% for rates and inflationary inertia” and that the annual expectation is 35% . A month ago, the consultant had projected it at 33%.
For Gabriel Caamaño , of the Ledesma Consultancy, the February inflation figure “is within the expected, even somewhat below,” but made the caveat that core inflation “gave way beyond rates”. Regarding the March indicator, it observes a little higher than Furiase and Carugati and positions it “around 3.5% by adjusting tariffs.” In the future there is a lot of inertia in this first quarter, in addition, there are the joint and rise of the dollar, which is important for the value and for the persistence, “he added.
Relative prices would continue to press on the indicator. At least that is how Irina Moroni of the Capital Foundation understands it. “February shows that while distortions in relative prices are still present, inflation does not decelerate , despite the sharp fall in economic activity (-4.9% yoy-19e)”. Looking ahead, Monori pointed out the effects of the second round of devaluation and tariffs “added to the increases in regulated already regulated: fuel, transportation, electricity and fuel, and other increases such as cigarettes, school products and telephony, they put pressure on the registers of March and April, standing at around 3% “. In this context, the consultant defined to modify the guideline and raise the estimates in more than one point, “and we place it close to 34%”.
The most ” pessimistic ” was Rodrigo Alvarez of Analytica, a consultant who had projected inflation one level higher than the consensus of analysts and had already modified it from 33% to 36% in February. In this context, Álvarez points out that “we are going to be closer to 38%”.
For the economist it is worrisome “the components March and April” which they estimate will be “3.9% and 3, eight%, May can drill 3% and from June around 2.5% .The period March-May It will accumulate 10.6%, in this context we are worried for the next few months about the core and food as there is still a transfer of the devaluation “.
Finally , Ramiro Castiñeira de Econométrica who pointed out that inflation this year ” has a floor of 30%” and that there is a lack of “transfer to prices”, pointed out that there is a point “not minor” and that only by payment of Leliq the BCRA increases the immoral monetary in $ 30,000 million per month, which annualized gives $ 360,000 million.The BCRA enquistó inflation with the Leliq, can not turn off the machine “.